Military Presence in South Lebanon – Asset or Liability

What is the Issue?

​

• The IDF has taken over a security zone in south Lebanon, similar to the one held by Israel until its withdrawal from Lebanon (5/00).

• The objective of the military presence on the ground is to create a zone which is "clean" of Hizbullah forces, and to prepare the ground for the arrival of an international force, following a ceasefire agreement.​

• Due to the complexity of deploying such an international force, there may be a substantial "interim period" between a ceasefire and the deployment of the international force. (See: International Involvement Predicament (4) – The Interim Period).​

• Israel's objectives are to minimize the length of this interim period, the end of which will be the establishment a new military-political arrangement that would undermine Hizbullah's ability.

​​

Why is this Important?  Why Now?

​

• The interim period may allow Hizbullah to restore its military capabilities, earn renewed support within the internal Lebanese arena and might even obstruct the deployment of the international force.​

• Therefore, the IDF may find itself in south Lebanon, constrained by the ceasefire agreement, while exposed to Hizbullah's guerilla attacks and with no certainty regarding the deployment of an international force.